America is not out of the woods . . . nor should we be yet, based on misdirected or non-existent policies; and that’s irrespective of the ‘demand’ for housing ‘stock’ or any of the normal long-term factors that ‘eventually’ will come to the fore. This economy is incapable of generating the kind of demand the residential and commercial crowd for sure is projecting, because while the operating fundamentals of corporate America is improving; the operating fundamentals of the average family’s merely holding its own. In the second video this weekend I’ll touch on some of the issues restraining the USA and how these could ‘shift’ into a higher gear that would restore hope for the future at the margin. With monetary velocity quite moribund still; one shouldn’t hold his breath.

      Dow Jones Industrial Average chart:

(chart courtesy Quote.com)

MarketCast (intraday analysis & embedded Daily Briefing audio-video). . . remarks forecast substantive failures by markets; particularly as 2010 evolves (whether just as a correction of a worse case remains to be assessed). Remember back in early 2007 we denied the 'liquidity' momentum as a canard; believing housing only the first asset bubble to deflate. We then outlined structured investment vehicle failures; banking issues, the confluence of asset deflations, and more; continuing with interruptions per projecting long ago: 'a perfect storm'. New sets of storm clouds quietly are gathered.

As the debt bubbles continue to deflate, alternating tradable moves continue from a trading perspective. Against that backdrop retaining a macro (adjusted) Sept. S&P 1600 +/- short irrespective of interim oscillations. Technical analysis via video follows.

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